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10/14/2009
Who is this El Niño guy?
And what will he do with our winter?
By
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LAKE TAHOE — Predictions of an El Niño-influenced winter at Lake Tahoe have been percolating since early this summer.
And while this week’s storm is the remnant of a typhoon and may not be directly connected to the weather phenomenon, a strengthening El Niño could mean more wet weather is on the way, according to the latest predictions from the federal Climate Prediction Service.
Meteorologists began to notice an El Niño starting around June.
The warming has been classified as “weak” through September, but the latest federal prediction indicates El Niño activity is expected to reach at least “moderate strength” in the fall and last throughout the 2009-2010 winter.
Strong El Niños tend to bring more precipitation than usual to the area, while weaker El Niño’s influence on winter precipitation is less dramatic and are harder to predict, said Rhett Milne, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Reno on Tuesday.
“As of right now, El Niño does continue to strengthen,” Milne said.
A noteworthy winter would be welcome news to snow enthusiasts and area businesses that have seen mediocre snowfall at Lake Tahoe during the past three winters, but where storms track will also play a critical role in determining whether this year’s El Niño is a boom or a bust for the region, Milne said.
During El Niño years, storms will frequently split into two branches, with one branch of the jet stream heading towards the southern Alaska and a second branch of the jet stream seen across the southern tier of the U.S. and northern Mexico, according to the weather service.
That split could leave the Lake Tahoe in the wetter Southern half of the country or in the drier northern end, Milne said.
“(El Niño) tends to bring above normal precipitation for Southern California and then drier toward the Pacific Northwest,” Milne said. “Unfortunately we get to also be stuck in the middle. With that said, this is shaping up to be a moderate El Niño and potentially strong.”
But it’s still a “crapshoot” to predict exactly how El Niño will affect the region’s weather, Milne said.
A trend of winters that above average temperature winters that has occurred since 2000, is unlikely to quit this winter, Milne added. Temperatures are supposed to be “slightly above” historical averages for this winter, Milne said.
While some may point at this weeks wild weather as an indication of storms to come, Milne said he would be “hard-pressed” to draw a direct connection between this week’s storm and warming in the Pacific.
This week’s storm is a remnant of typhoon Melor, which hit Japan on Oct. 8, Milne said.
The storm dropped more than an inch rain on the South Shore and close to 1.5 inches on the North Shore as of 5 p.m. on Tuesday, according to National Weather Service readings.
By the same time on Tuesday, wind speeds had reached 114 mph over ridges near Tahoe City, according to the weather service.
And while this week’s storm is the remnant of a typhoon and may not be directly connected to the weather phenomenon, a strengthening El Niño could mean more wet weather is on the way, according to the latest predictions from the federal Climate Prediction Service.
Meteorologists began to notice an El Niño starting around June.
The warming has been classified as “weak” through September, but the latest federal prediction indicates El Niño activity is expected to reach at least “moderate strength” in the fall and last throughout the 2009-2010 winter.
Strong El Niños tend to bring more precipitation than usual to the area, while weaker El Niño’s influence on winter precipitation is less dramatic and are harder to predict, said Rhett Milne, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Reno on Tuesday.
“As of right now, El Niño does continue to strengthen,” Milne said.
A noteworthy winter would be welcome news to snow enthusiasts and area businesses that have seen mediocre snowfall at Lake Tahoe during the past three winters, but where storms track will also play a critical role in determining whether this year’s El Niño is a boom or a bust for the region, Milne said.
During El Niño years, storms will frequently split into two branches, with one branch of the jet stream heading towards the southern Alaska and a second branch of the jet stream seen across the southern tier of the U.S. and northern Mexico, according to the weather service.
That split could leave the Lake Tahoe in the wetter Southern half of the country or in the drier northern end, Milne said.
“(El Niño) tends to bring above normal precipitation for Southern California and then drier toward the Pacific Northwest,” Milne said. “Unfortunately we get to also be stuck in the middle. With that said, this is shaping up to be a moderate El Niño and potentially strong.”
But it’s still a “crapshoot” to predict exactly how El Niño will affect the region’s weather, Milne said.
A trend of winters that above average temperature winters that has occurred since 2000, is unlikely to quit this winter, Milne added. Temperatures are supposed to be “slightly above” historical averages for this winter, Milne said.
While some may point at this weeks wild weather as an indication of storms to come, Milne said he would be “hard-pressed” to draw a direct connection between this week’s storm and warming in the Pacific.
This week’s storm is a remnant of typhoon Melor, which hit Japan on Oct. 8, Milne said.
The storm dropped more than an inch rain on the South Shore and close to 1.5 inches on the North Shore as of 5 p.m. on Tuesday, according to National Weather Service readings.
By the same time on Tuesday, wind speeds had reached 114 mph over ridges near Tahoe City, according to the weather service.
Looks like this article has some validity. Looks like we are in a moderate el nino.
The above comment was submitted on Jan. 12th 2010.